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2025 Topps Chrome® UFC Trading Card Set: Detailed Report and Analysis
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The 2025 Topps Chrome® UFC Trading Card set, released on June 27, 2025, continues the tradition of delivering a premium, chromium-based collectible experience for UFC fans and trading card enthusiasts. Featuring a 200-card base set, a wide array of autographs, inserts, and Refractor parallels, this set builds on the success of its predecessors with vibrant designs, exclusive cards, and high-stakes chase elements. This report provides a comprehensive breakdown of the set’s configuration, base set, parallels, autographs, inserts, and pack odds, supported by statistical analysis and collector insights. All data is sourced from reputable industry references, including Beckett, Checklist Insider, and Topps’ official channels.
Set Overview and Configuration
The 2025 Topps Chrome UFC set is designed to appeal to both casual collectors and high-end chasers, offering a mix of accessible base cards, vibrant parallels, and rare autographs. The set is available in multiple formats, each with distinct configurations and exclusive cards:
Hobby Box:
8 cards per pack, 12 packs per box, 12 boxes per case.
Average yield: 2 autographs, 4 numbered base parallels, 20 additional base parallels per box.
Price: Approximately $189.99 (presale).
Breaker’s Delight Box:
8 cards per pack, 12 packs per box, 12 boxes per case.
Average yield: 2 Geometric autographs, 2 inserts.
Mega Box:
8 cards per pack, 6 packs per box, 20 boxes per case.
Price: Approximately $59.99 (presale).
Value Blaster Box:
4 cards per pack, 6 packs per box, 40 boxes per case.
Price: Approximately $29.99 (presale).
Set Size: 200 base cards.
Release Date: June 27, 2025.
The set emphasizes a “rainbow of color and tech parallels,” with a focus on premium chromium stock, autographs, and case-hit inserts. Each format offers exclusive parallels and inserts, creating varied collecting experiences across Hobby, Breaker’s Delight, Mega, and Value Blaster boxes.
Base Set
The 2025 Topps Chrome UFC base set consists of 200 cards, covering a mix of current UFC stars, rookies, and legends. Notable fighters include Conor McGregor, Israel Adesanya, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and emerging talents like Diego Lopes and Shavkat Rakhmonov. The base set is printed on premium chromium stock, giving cards a metallic, reflective finish that enhances visual appeal.
Base Set Parallels
Each base card has 34 Refractor parallels, offering collectors a wide range of rarity levels. These parallels vary by box type, with some exclusive to specific formats. Below is a detailed breakdown of the parallels, their odds, and availability:
Refractor: 1:6 packs (Hobby, Breaker, Value, Mega).
Prism Refractor: 1:3 packs (Hobby).
Negative Refractor: 1:2 packs (Hobby exclusive).
Red & Blue Refractor: 1:3 packs (Hobby exclusive).
Purple Refractor: 1:6 packs (Hobby exclusive).
Sepia Refractor: 4 per box (Value Blaster exclusive).
Speckle Refractor: #/250.
Aqua Refractor: #/199.
Teal Lazer Refractor: #/175.
Blue Refractor: #/150.
Green Refractor: #/99.
Blue Wave Refractor: #/75.
Gold Refractor: #/50.
Orange Refractor: #/25.
Black Refractor: #/10.
OctaFractor: #/8 (Hobby exclusive).
Red Refractor: #/5.
SuperFractor: 1/1 (1:44,031 packs).
Geometric Refractors (Breaker/Value exclusive):
Blue Geometric Refractor: #/150.
Gold Geometric Refractor: #/50.
Orange Geometric Refractor: #/25.
Purple Geometric Refractor: #/10.
Red Geometric Refractor: #/5.
Black Geometric Refractor: #/2.
Additional Parallels (specific odds not fully detailed but confirmed in set):
Raywave Refractors (Breaker/Mega exclusive).
Red White & Blue Refractor: #/88 (Mega exclusive).
X-Fractor (Mega exclusive).
Black & Gold Refractor: #/8 (Mega exclusive).
Statistical Analysis:
A Hobby box (12 packs, 8 cards each = 96 cards) yields approximately 20 base parallels, including 4 numbered parallels. With a 1:6 pack odds for standard Refractors, collectors can expect ~2 Refractors per box, with rarer parallels (e.g., Gold, Orange, Black) being significantly harder to pull due to low print runs.
Value Blaster boxes guarantee 4 Sepia Refractors per box, making them a reliable source for this exclusive parallel.
The SuperFractor (1/1) has odds of 1:44,031 packs, making it an ultra-rare chase card, with an estimated 200 copies across the entire set (one per base card).
Autographs
Autographs are a cornerstone of the 2025 Topps Chrome UFC set, with two autographs guaranteed per Hobby box and two Geometric autographs per Breaker’s Delight box. The set features six distinct autograph sets, covering rookies, veterans, and legends, with some including inscriptions (e.g., Jon Jones “GOAT” SuperFractor).
Autograph Sets and Odds
Chrome Rookie Autographs:
Odds: 1:11 Hobby packs.
Parallels: Refractor (/150), Gold Refractor (/50), Orange Refractor (/25), Black Refractor (/10), Red Refractor (/5), SuperFractor (1/1).
Notable fighters: Vitor Petrino, Stephen Erceg, Yazmin Jauregui.
Chrome Veteran Autographs:
Odds: 1:97 Hobby packs.
Parallels: Same as Rookie Autographs.
Notable fighters: Conor McGregor, Israel Adesanya, Khabib Nurmagomedov.
UFC Signatures:
Parallels: Refractor (/150), Gold Refractor (/50), Orange Refractor (/25), Black Refractor (/10), Red Refractor (/5), SuperFractor (1/1), Geometric Refractors (Breaker/Value).
Notable fighters: Islam Makhachev, Max Holloway, Alex Pereira.
Future Stars Autographs:
Parallels: Same as above.
Notable fighters: Diego Lopes, Bo Nickal, Shavkat Rakhmonov.
Octagon Legends Autographs:
Parallels: Same as above.
Notable fighters: Anderson Silva, Chuck Liddell, Amanda Nunes.
Mark of a Champion Autographs:
Parallels: Same as above.
Notable fighters: Dricus Du Plessis, Raquel Pennington, Ilia Topuria.
Statistical Analysis:
With 1:11 odds for Chrome Rookie Autographs, collectors can expect roughly 1 per Hobby box (12 packs). Veteran Autographs, at 1:97 odds, are significantly rarer, with an expected hit rate of ~0.12 per box, meaning many boxes will not contain one.
The total autograph checklist includes 85 cards across Rookie and Veteran lines, with additional cards in other autograph sets. The inclusion of Geometric Refractors in Breaker and Value formats adds exclusivity to those boxes.
SuperFractor autographs (1/1) are extremely rare, with odds compounded by the low print run and high pack volume required.
Inserts
The 2025 Topps Chrome UFC set features nearly two dozen insert sets, ranging from common to ultra-rare case hits. These inserts add thematic depth and collectible appeal, with many offering Refractor parallels. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of the insert sets, their odds, and parallels.
Hobby and Breaker Insert Sets
1955 Topps (Retro-themed):
Odds: 1:5 packs (Hobby, Breaker).
Parallels: Refractor, Blue Refractor (/150), Green Refractor (/99), Gold Refractor (/50), Black Refractor (/10), Red Refractor (/5), SuperFractor (1/1), Geometric Refractors (Breaker).
Approx. 2-3 per Hobby box.
Tale of the Tape:
Mission Control (Tech-inspired):
AKA (Fighter nickname focus):
Tailor Made (Stylistic):
Big Ticket:
Odds: 1:40 packs (Hobby).
Parallels: Same as 1955 Topps.
Rare, ~0.3 per Hobby box.
Fists of Fury:
Odds: 1:48 packs (Hobby).
Parallels: Same as 1955 Topps.
Rare, ~0.25 per Hobby box.
Kings & Queens:
Odds: 1:72 packs (Hobby).
No parallels.
Very rare, ~0.17 per Hobby box.
Representing:
Odds: 1:60 packs (Hobby).
Parallels: Same as 1955 Topps.
Rare, ~0.2 per Hobby box.
Split Decision:
Odds: 1:80 packs (Hobby).
Parallels: Same as 1955 Topps.
Very rare, ~0.15 per Hobby box.
Berzerker:
Odds: 1:144 packs (Hobby).
Parallels: Same as 1955 Topps.
Super short print (SSP), ~0.08 per Hobby box.
Helix:
Odds: 1:326 packs (Hobby).
Parallels: Same as 1955 Topps.
SSP, ~0.04 per Hobby box.
Let’s Go!:
Odds: 1:432 packs (Hobby).
Parallels: Same as 1955 Topps.
SSP, ~0.03 per Hobby box.
Radiating Rookies:
Odds: 1:288 packs (Hobby).
Parallels: Same as 1955 Topps.
SSP, ~0.04 per Hobby box.
Youthquake:
Odds: 1:120 packs (Hobby).
Parallels: Same as 1955 Topps.
Rare, ~0.1 per Hobby box.
Notable cards: Vitor Petrino, Maycee Barber, Diego Lopes.
Retail (Mega and Value Blaster) Insert Sets
Allen & Ginter:
Odds: 1:4 packs (Mega, Value).
Parallels: Refractor, Blue Refractor (/150), Green Refractor (/99), Red White & Blue Refractor (/88), Gold Refractor (/50), Orange Refractor (/25), Black Refractor (/10), Black & Gold Refractor (/8), Red Refractor (/5), SuperFractor (1/1).
Approx. 1-2 per Mega/Value box.
Fired Up:
Odds: 1:5 packs (Mega, Value).
Parallels: Same as Allen & Ginter.
Approx. 1-2 per Mega/Value box.
Top of the Class:
Odds: 1:6 packs (Mega, Value).
Parallels: Same as Allen & Ginter.
Approx. 1 per Mega/Value box.
Plexus:
Odds: 1:8 packs (Mega, Value).
Parallels: Same as Allen & Ginter.
Approx. 0.5-1 per Mega/Value box.
Dare to Be Great:
Odds: 1:12 packs (Mega, Value).
Parallels: Same as Allen & Ginter.
Approx. 0.5 per Mega/Value box.
Titans:
Odds: 1:120 packs (Retail case hit).
Parallels: Same as Allen & Ginter.
Extremely rare, ~0.05 per Mega/Value box.
Statistical Analysis:
Hobby boxes (12 packs) yield ~5-7 common inserts (e.g., 1955 Topps, Tale of the Tape, Mission Control) due to their favorable odds (1:5 to 1:9). Rarer inserts like Helix (1:326) and Let’s Go! (1:432) are case-level hits, with an expected hit rate of ~0.03-0.04 per box, making them highly coveted.
Retail formats (Mega/Value) offer exclusive inserts like Allen & Ginter and Titans, with Titans being a case hit at 1:120 packs, translating to ~0.05 per box.
The Kings & Queens insert, exclusive to Hobby with no parallels, has a 1:72 pack odds, making it a challenging pull at ~0.17 per box.
Buyback Program
The 2025 Topps Chrome UFC Buyback Program, centered around UFC 318 (July 19, 2025), encourages collectors to save base cards and Refractor parallels of Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway. These cards can be redeemed for store credit at participating shops, adding a unique collecting incentive.
Collector Insights and Market Analysis
Value Proposition: Hobby boxes ($189.99) offer the best chance at high-end autographs and exclusive parallels (e.g., OctaFractor, Negative Refractor), making them ideal for serious collectors. Value Blaster boxes ($29.99) are budget-friendly, with guaranteed Sepia Refractors and retail-exclusive inserts, appealing to casual collectors. Mega boxes ($59.99) strike a balance, offering exclusive parallels like Red White & Blue and X-Fractor.
Rarity and Appeal: SuperFractors (1/1) and low-numbered parallels (e.g., Red Refractor /5, Black Refractor /10) are the most sought-after, with significant secondary market value, especially for star fighters like Conor McGregor or Khabib Nurmagomedov. SSP inserts like Helix and Let’s Go! are also high-value targets due to their scarcity.
Collector Feedback: Posts on X highlight excitement for the set’s release, with collectors praising the checklist and odds for autographs and parallels. However, some note the challenge of pulling SSP inserts, requiring multiple boxes or cases for a chance at cards like Helix or Titans.
Investment Potential: The inclusion of rookies like Diego Lopes and Payton Talbott, alongside established stars, makes the set a strong long-term investment, particularly for numbered parallels and autographs. The Buyback Program adds additional value for specific fighter cards.
Conclusion
The 2025 Topps Chrome UFC Trading Card set delivers a robust collecting experience with its 200-card base set, 34 Refractor parallels, six autograph sets, and nearly two dozen insert sets. Hobby boxes offer the best chance at premium hits, with 2 autographs and 24 total parallels per box, while retail formats provide accessible entry points with exclusive cards. The set’s rarity structure, from common inserts like 1955 Topps (1:5 packs) to SSP case hits like Helix (1:326 packs), caters to a wide range of collectors. With a strong checklist featuring UFC’s biggest names and a dynamic Buyback Program, this set is poised to be a cornerstone of the 2025 trading card market. Collectors should weigh their goals—whether chasing autographs, parallels, or inserts—when choosing between Hobby, Breaker’s Delight, Mega, or Value Blaster boxes.
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